open water predictions, ice off and run off

Well last year we were out at tobacco gardens around the 20th of april.  I'm gonna say prolly around april 15th on the upper end and the 23rd for the whole lake.

Well, I'm really hoping to get some more ice fishing in, but the access is getting tough, so I guess i'll take the open water. Better get on the stick and order my new terrova with the i-pilot.

Yeah typically I'm tippy-toeing around the ice in late April for pike.  Areas can get a boat on during those times, or should.  Especially since we have no issue with usable boat ramps.  Well, let me re-state that.  Most do not.  The boat ramps I like to use are long under water.  How can I never have a win-win situation?  Either the water is too high or too low.  Argh.

Speaking of.  My prediction for water level?  As of RIGHT NOW (still lots of time to come) I am saying we get at least ten feet of water back.  I don't know how much they are going to draw it down in preparation of run-off, hence the dilemma of where to base the ten feet from.  Oahe is full pool and their full capacity (spillway time) is only 13 feet away.  Peck is something like 14 feet below their mean pool.  They could reach that this year but most likely will not reach it until late in the year.

Point being, we'll have to see how they play the releases from here to the start of local runoff.  Sounds like lots of water to dump into Oahe from its tribs and drainage basin.  The Yellowstone for us is sitting at 69 and 71 % (lower and upper).  I believe that is right around where it normally should be.  I haven't found concrete percentages of what is expected at this time.  The percentages I listed are percentage of yearly totals from what I understand.

Couple that with pretty good local runoff sitting out there and of course the Ft. Peck and beyond water supply we should have a good runoff.  So, I don't know if it is out of the question we could see 1847.  Tough to know.  Historical values proved a very good tool for guesstimating the levels last year.  If you look at 1998 totals the water didn't climb as much as it did in the previous year.  However, I don't know what snow totals were then.  Would have to do some digging.

But yeah, we'll have no draw of water that's for sure.  Given how everything is looking good we could crack 1847 and even more if they don't draw down the system below 1837 (of which they expected her to get in Feb).

To be continued as March turns to April...