Official 2013 Red River Flood Page

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guywhofishes's picture
guywhofishes
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Official 2013 Red River Flood Page

What's the waiting period for flood insurance again? It's been a whole two years so I forget.

I think we went in too dry last fall to worry too much... but a freak chinook wind or big rain like out west two years ago and we're right back up to our navels again.

FARGO – Recent snowfall has significantly increased the chances of major flooding on the Red River here, from 6 percent last month to 79 percent in the latest flood outlook released today by the National Weather Service.

Major flood stage in Fargo is 30 feet. There’s a 50 percent chance the river will reach 33.2 feet, a 25 percent chance it will hit 35.1 feet and a 5 percent chance of 37.8 feet, the outlook states.

Fargo’s record flood crest is 40.84 feet on March 28, 2009.

The river has a greater than 95 percent chance of reaching moderate flood stage of 25 feet in Fargo, the outlook states.

The Red River at Wahpeton has a 64 percent chance of major flooding. The next greatest chance for major flooding along the Red is in Pembina, at 40 percent.

Late January and February snowstorms and blizzards added significant amounts of snow and snow-water to the snowpack across eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota, especially in the southern Red River Basin, the weather service said.

Snow depths measure up to 2 feet in the headwaters region of the basin from extreme southeastern North Dakota into Minnesota lakes country; 6 to 10 inches across east-central North Dakota and the west-central Minnesota part of the basin; and 10 to 20 inches in the rest of the basin, the outlook states.

The deeper snowpack contains upwards of 5 inches of water, while the shallower snowpack contains 1 to 2 inches and the rest of the basin holds about 2 to 4 inches.

The weather service says there is some uncertainty in the flood risks because of wide variations in snowpack and snow-water measurements taken from the ground and air. Partner agencies and volunteer networks “will be out in full force” from late this month through early March to fill in existing data gaps, the outlook states.

Weather service officials will discuss the outlook during a 10:30 a.m. press conference.

The next outlook will be issued March 7.

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I bet jigem up, whopperking, gillgetter, and captain ahab are licking there chops haha

 

 "I get what you're saying:  Like a sausage replica featuring a Polander holding a sacred illumination device." 

 

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 Three Colorado lows have all taken paths south and east of most of ND. All it would take is a rather big one two follow same path but tweak its path a bit north. I think a fairly active pattern exists for feb and march. couple it with a big rain and could be somewhat interesting. 


 

 

Kirsch's Outdoor Products | Fargo, ND | 701-261-9017 Garmin GPS Hunting Maps
Liebel's Guide Service | Williston, ND | 701-770-6746 liebelsguideservice.com
Jig-em-Up Guide Service | Grand Forks, ND | 701-739-9198 jig-em-up-guide-service.com

 

 
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 Guy then you could fish from your deck instead of walking down to the river

cant drink all day unless you start in the morning.
Im only one man
GET SOME!!!!!

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beminoid31 Said:
 Guy then you could fish from your deck instead of walking down to the river

Been there, done that. I've seen catfish tailing like carp (and caught some) when it floods mid-summer and the nightcrawlers are drowning. It's quite a sight to see gray tails waggling above the water like carp.

But I prefer walking down to the bank and fishing traditionally!

Early spring floods just plain suck - even for fishing. Modest runoff is great - big muddy floods suck.

 

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Wags86 Said:
I bet jigem up, whopperking, gillgetter, and captain ahab are licking there chops haha
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Wags86 Said:
I bet jigem up, whopperking, gillgetter, and captain ahab are licking there chops haha

You should be too.  You will have to head North again young man.

"Diligence is the mother of good luck."

"The constitution only gives people the right to pursue hapiness.  You have to catch it yourself."

"Well done is better than well said."

"Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy."

All by:  Benjamin Franklin.

"The solution to any problem - work, love, money, whatever - is to go fishing, and the bigger the problem, the longer the trip should be."

Author: John Gierach

Pat'sPlace
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 30 day waiting period to when FEMA declares the flood officially started... Doesn't matter if you home was dry until 45 days after you bought insurance...been there, got screwed by that...

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I wouldn't worry.  There's three colleges that will help sandbag while the owners of the river front property watch you while drinking their coffee. 


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Pat'sPlace Said:
 30 day waiting period to when FEMA declares the flood officially started... Doesn't matter if you home was dry until 45 days after you bought insurance...been there, got screwed by that...

Oh yeah, that's right!

 

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im surprised fargo hasnt started sandbagging allready. OH yea they did that the last non flood.

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I still have sandbagitis.

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DirtyMike Said:
I wouldn't worry.  There's three colleges that will help sandbag while the owners of the river front property watch you while drinking their coffee. 

and some even complain about their lawn getting trampled...  If i am ever present and hear a homeowner complaining about the sandbaggers in their backyard I will throw a sandbag through a window.

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Enslow Said:

DirtyMike Said:
I wouldn't worry.  There's three colleges that will help sandbag while the owners of the river front property watch you while drinking their coffee. 

and some even complain about their lawn getting trampled...  If i am ever present and hear a homeowner complaining about the sandbaggers in their backyard I will throw a sandbag through a window.

also met some really awesome people while piling the bags. Me and my buddies helped some random guy bag his yard. Just walked up and started throwing. He fed us and gave us beer and offered money but we declined the latter.

 

 "I get what you're saying:  Like a sausage replica featuring a Polander holding a sacred illumination device." 

 

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not that i ever want to do it again

 

 "I get what you're saying:  Like a sausage replica featuring a Polander holding a sacred illumination device." 

 

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LOL!!!!!
 

Enslow Said:

DirtyMike Said:
I wouldn't worry.  There's three colleges that will help sandbag while the owners of the river front property watch you while drinking their coffee. 

and some even complain about their lawn getting trampled...  If i am ever present and hear a homeowner complaining about the sandbaggers in their backyard I will throw a sandbag through a window.

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Wags86 Said:

Enslow Said:

DirtyMike Said:
I wouldn't worry.  There's three colleges that will help sandbag while the owners of the river front property watch you while drinking their coffee. 

and some even complain about their lawn getting trampled...  If i am ever present and hear a homeowner complaining about the sandbaggers in their backyard I will throw a sandbag through a window.

also met some really awesome people while piling the bags. Me and my buddies helped some random guy bag his yard. Just walked up and started throwing. He fed us and gave us beer and offered money but we declined the latter.

Yes the vast majority are very thankful.  That sandbagging is hard work.

Farnorth
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Fargo needed this news BIG TIME.  Expect every report of "possible" flooding to get hyped beyond belief.

Support for a diversion plan is impossible to maintain unless you actually have flooding issues.   I'm sure there was dancing in the Halls when this news came out.

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Lived in Fargo during the '97 flood, still playing with sandbags over there,
16 years later?

A lady sat on her deck drinking her coffee with a video camera, documenting all the volunters saving her house. It was awesome

There's a whole generation of Americans that have no idea about the truth of the Clintons, particularly Hillary 


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Wags86 Said:
I bet jigem up, whopperking, gillgetter, and captain ahab are licking there chops haha

After last years nonexistent flood conditions and how good the spring fishing was, not sure I want it to flood. Nah, who am I kidding. High water fishing is a blast.  Ahab, Whopperking, you guys ready?

"Catch em cut em up and eat em" Quote from a 3yr old fisherman.

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 Those of you that have experience with flood insurance...Is it true you cannot claim damage unless the water is a foot or higher on the main level?  

"Firearms are second only to the Constitution in importance; they are the peoples' liberty's teeth."
- George Washington

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gillgetter. Said:
 

Wags86 Said:
I bet jigem up, whopperking, gillgetter, and captain ahab are licking there chops haha

After last years nonexistent flood conditions and how good the spring fishing was, not sure I want it to flood. Nah, who am I kidding. High water fishing is a blast.  Ahab, Whopperking, you guys ready?

Gillgetter- I cant believe you guys left me out on this. Am I not cool enough to be group?

 

 
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I know that sdwxman will slam me on this one --- but this armchair hydrologist says no major flooding.   My definition of major flooding -- is no bags no machinery required. 

Factors ---

1. Ground is very very dry --- i dont think one can comprehend how dry
2. The 14day outlook -- shows melting and dry
3. This cold suck out alot of moisture from the top of the snow. 
4 . I am more worried about the record low flow and no water for the city that has grown

PS -- i pray and pray that MT gets hammered on -- so it fills the big lakes.  Not so sure that is going to happen either.  

Shorts Armchair report for the week.

Stay thirsty my friends

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Farnorth Said:
Fargo needed this news BIG TIME.  Expect every report of "possible" flooding to get hyped beyond belief.

Support for a diversion plan is impossible to maintain unless you actually have flooding issues.   I'm sure there was dancing in the Halls when this news came out.

Right on ---- nobody will be in the hall when all the money is spent and then we run out of water.  

So who wants to take the bet on how long the ramp will be usable this year (unless if they dredge the channel) at pelican?

Stay thirsty my friends

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 Pelican ramp not useable without dredging by Labor day

This moment is a paradox, it's the oldest you've ever been as well as the youngest you'll ever be.



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gillgetter. Said:
 

Wags86 Said:
I bet jigem up, whopperking, gillgetter, and captain ahab are licking there chops haha

After last years nonexistent flood conditions and how good the spring fishing was, not sure I want it to flood. Nah, who am I kidding. High water fishing is a blast.  Ahab, Whopperking, you guys ready?

I'll be ready as soon as that rods done

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Farnorth Said:
Fargo needed this news BIG TIME.  Expect every report of "possible" flooding to get hyped beyond belief.

Support for a diversion plan is impossible to maintain unless you actually have flooding issues.   I'm sure there was dancing in the Halls when this news came out.

Exactly!

Wonder how much money has already been wasted on Denny's Ditch!

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whopperking Said:

gillgetter. Said:
 

Wags86 Said:
I bet jigem up, whopperking, gillgetter, and captain ahab are licking there chops haha

After last years nonexistent flood conditions and how good the spring fishing was, not sure I want it to flood. Nah, who am I kidding. High water fishing is a blast.  Ahab, Whopperking, you guys ready?

I'll be ready as soon as that rods done

what ya getting? jiggin stick? or the "AHAD" special? haha just ribbin ya gill

 

 "I get what you're saying:  Like a sausage replica featuring a Polander holding a sacred illumination device." 

 

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SHORTHAIRSRUS Said:
I know that sdwxman will slam me on this one --- but this armchair hydrologist says no major flooding.   My definition of major flooding -- is no bags no machinery required. 

Factors ---

1. Ground is very very dry --- i dont think one can comprehend how dry
2. The 14day outlook -- shows melting and dry
3. This cold suck out alot of moisture from the top of the snow. 
4 . I am more worried about the record low flow and no water for the city that has grown

PS -- i pray and pray that MT gets hammered on -- so it fills the big lakes.  Not so sure that is going to happen either.  

Shorts Armchair report for the week.

No slamming from me Shorts. I agree with you. Things could change however with a couple more big storms. I don't see anything on the horizon however.

And when we going fishing? Maybe meeting up this spring with Simms and fish the river in the Bismarck area? 

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I cant do anything until my busy time is over --- but yes if the bite goes late  i am game :)

Stay thirsty my friends

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Horsager Said:
 Pelican ramp not useable without dredging by Labor day

Best news a guy could have.

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Regulator Said:
 Those of you that have experience with flood insurance...Is it true you cannot claim damage unless the water is a foot or higher on the main level?  

not true
you can use flood insurance for 'covered damages,' if you get damages with 1mm of water you can claim

the issue is in regards to what is covered and what isn't; in general flood insurance doesn't cover with the intention to 'make you whole' rather its to keep you out of the poor house

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ya, but anyone that pays attention knows that almost all of the permanent dikes are built up to 42 feet. i agree that if your not having constant flooding issues good luck getting this pushed thru. i don't see anything happening unless something like GF or Minot occurs. until then the diversion is going to be stuck in red tape and legal issues. just my thoughts.

Farnorth Said:
Fargo needed this news BIG TIME.  Expect every report of "possible" flooding to get hyped beyond belief.

Support for a diversion plan is impossible to maintain unless you actually have flooding issues.   I'm sure there was dancing in the Halls when this news came out.


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Farnorth Said:
Fargo needed this news BIG TIME.  Expect every report of "possible" flooding to get hyped beyond belief.

Support for a diversion plan is impossible to maintain unless you actually have flooding issues.   I'm sure there was dancing in the Halls when this news came out.

EXACTLY, spot on!

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Understudy in tow, Fargo mayor makes crest predictions for spring on annual pre-flood tour of valley

FARGO - As a cold wind whipped against the back of his head Tuesday afternoon, Fargo Mayor Dennis Walaker let his eyes confirm what his ears had already heard.

By: Mike Nowatzki, INFORUM

FARGO - As a cold wind whipped against the back of his head Tuesday afternoon, Fargo Mayor Dennis Walaker let his eyes confirm what his ears had already heard.

“That’s a good flow,” he said, watching a current rush through White Rock Dam on the South Dakota-Minnesota border about 70 miles south of Fargo.

For more than 20 years, Walaker has toured the southern Red River Valley to gauge how much water the north-flowing river will eventually try to cram through Fargo-Moorhead.

He cobbles his observations into a spring flood prediction that’s become almost folklore – most notably in 2009, when he downplayed the National Weather Service’s revised flood forecast of 43 feet and stuck with the earlier forecast of 41 feet for which Fargo had prepared.

The river crested on March 28 of that year at a record 40.84 feet.

Just 80 minutes into Tuesday’s tour, after crossing the North Dakota-South Dakota border and seeing snow piled 3 feet high in spots along Interstate 29, Walaker was ready to make his crest prediction for this spring.

“If I was going to pick a figure right now, it’d probably be 32 feet,” he said.

In the past, Walaker always rode solo on his pre-flood trips. But this year, Deputy Mayor Tim Mahoney asked to tag along on the 190-mile round trip.

Mahoney, a general and vascular surgeon at Essentia Health in Fargo, said he has a scientific bent but has always wanted to observe Walaker’s process.

“It’s always fun when you kind of put science and art together,” he said.

12:56 p.m.

Walaker arrives early at Essentia to pick up Mahoney and goes inside to have the surgeon paged.

Mahoney eventually emerges from the hospital wearing his trademark fluorescent yellow vest and carrying his “measuring stick” – a wooden staff he first brought to a 2009 flood meeting to lighten the mood.

Mahoney taps the stick on the sidewalk like he’s measuring water. Walaker, sitting in his city-issued Ford Explorer, chuckles.

“He’s so full of (it),” he says.

1:01 p.m.

Walaker heads south on I-29 and takes note of the corn stalks sticking up above the snow line. He estimates 5 or 6 inches of snow in the fields.

The mayor says he talks to people from areas south of Fargo about snow depth, but conversation is no substitute for observation.

“I’m just one of those guys that has to see it,” he says. “I just don’t believe statistics without having a feeling for it.”

1:13 p.m.

As wind-driven ground snow sticks to I-29, Walaker keeps the Explorer cruising along at a careful 55 mph or less as he looks out the windows.

“I don’t get concerned about how much snow is in the shelterbelts,” he says. “If the ditches are clogged, that’s a good thing, because that’s retention.”

The culverts may be frozen shut, but the ditches have a lot more room to hold snow than in 2009, when the snow was level with the road, he notes.

1:17 p.m.

The Explorer passes the Kindred exit. This is as far south as Walaker has been this spring, and he thinks about how much farther he’d like to go.

“In fact, we could go to Sioux Falls, watch the Bison game,” he jokes.

He talks about his ideal melting process, with daytime temperatures in the 30s and freezing at night.

“Doesn’t look like that’s going to happen until the end of March,” he says.

What he’s more concerned about is spring rain that can speed the process and swell rivers even more.

But he has reason for optimism.

“Never in my history have I ever seen the ground as dry as it was last fall. I mean, it’s just unbelievably dry,” he says. “The ditches don’t have any moisture in them; the lakes are down 2 to 3 feet. That’s a big part of our storage area. ... There’s gotta be some storage area out there.”

1:25 p.m.

As he approaches the Wild Rice River bridge near the Walcott exit, Walaker says, “There shouldn’t be much here in the Wild Rice. There’s nothing flowing.”

Driving over the bridge, he leans over and peers out Mahoney’s window.

“Not a thing,” he says, confirming his suspicions.

2:12 p.m.

Around the North Dakota-South Dakota border, snow is piled a few feet high in places along I-29, and the snow in the ditches dips more gently here.

“I’m still not concerned,” Walaker says, but he adds that what he sees verifies the weather service’s statement about snowpack in the southern valley being far above normal.

It’s here that he makes his crest prediction of 32 feet. The weather service’s latest flood outlook, released last Thursday, gave the Red River a 50 percent chance of topping 33.8 feet in Fargo-Moorhead.

2:26 p.m.

The Explorer rolls into the small town of Rosholt, S.D., where snow piles 6 to 8 feet tall obscure some businesses.

“Lot of snow down here, bud,” Mahoney says.

Walaker pulls into the Crossroads C-store and orders a cheeseburger with onion, pickles and ketchup. Mahoney gets the works.

2:52 p.m.

Back in the SUV, Walaker heads east from Rosholt. His phone rings. He hands it to Mahoney.

“Mayor Walaker’s answering service,” Mahoney quips. It’s Walaker’s dentist. He’ll have to call back.

The ditches here are plump full.

“This is a fair amount of snow, no?” Mahoney asks.

“Yeah,” Walaker says, adding, “but I can’t imagine this is much different from our area” in terms of dry soil conditions.

3:04 p.m.

At the White Rock Dam Recreation Area, Walaker and Mahoney exit the Explorer to get a closer look at flows from the dam.

They know the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has started releasing water here, and from Lake Traverse upstream, to make room for water storage during peak flooding.

“That’s a pretty good flow, so they must be wide open,” Walaker says of the dam’s gates, noting the water will soon pass through Fargo-Moorhead.

Pointing at the ice-crusted river downstream, he recalls how last year at this time it was wide open.

3:23 p.m.

After passing through Wheaton, Minn., Walaker steers toward Lake Traverse, headwaters of the Bois de Sioux River, which joins the Otter Tail River in Wahpeton to form the Red River.

Along Highway 27, the frozen Mustinka River sits deeps in its banks.

“See, there’s nothing started here. Nothing,” Walaker says, and he and Mahoney agree it could be a late spring melt.

He stops the Explorer on the bridge over the Reservation Dam spillway that’s releasing water from Lake Traverse. Again, he notes the lack of open water on the lake, saying there should be twice as much.

Still, it’s not enough to change his prediction.

“I just hope I’m right …” he says as he turns the Explorer toward home.

 

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"He cobbles his observations into a spring flood prediction that’s become almost folklore – most notably in 2009, when he downplayed the National Weather Service’s revised flood forecast of 43 feet and stuck with the earlier forecast of 41 feet for which Fargo had prepared.

The river crested on March 28 of that year at a record 40.84 feet."

As I recall driving through Fargo in early March of 2009, Mayor Walaker was on the radio forecasting a crest of 28 ft.   If memory further serves me, Pomeroy was on the news as well saying if he had to choose between Walaker's assessment and the NWS, he was going with Walaker.  Good stuff.

“Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it.” ~ Mark Twain

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cant stand Walaker

 

 "I get what you're saying:  Like a sausage replica featuring a Polander holding a sacred illumination device." 

 

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I think the guy lives for Flooding. Its his claim to fame. What a piece of work

 

 "I get what you're saying:  Like a sausage replica featuring a Polander holding a sacred illumination device." 

 

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Allen Said:

"He cobbles his observations into a spring flood prediction that’s become almost folklore – most notably in 2009, when he downplayed the National Weather Service’s revised flood forecast of 43 feet and stuck with the earlier forecast of 41 feet for which Fargo had prepared.

The river crested on March 28 of that year at a record 40.84 feet."

As I recall driving through Fargo in early March of 2009, Mayor Walaker was on the radio forecasting a crest of 28 ft.   If memory further serves me, Pomeroy was on the news as well saying if he had to choose between Walaker's assessment and the NWS, he was going with Walaker.  Good stuff.

EXACTLY!!!!! It's always easier on your 3rd or 4th prediction! They make it sound like he nailed it every time they write this stuff.

FYI - I posted this for entertainment value. Quite the corny article.

 

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Or like this prediction?

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/29695955/

"This is not the March madness we had in mind," Fargo Mayor Dennis Walaker said Friday, referring to the possibility of record flooding as snow thaws in the basin that includes eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota.

Forecasters predict the Red will crest in Fargo at more than 35 feet. Flood stage is 18 feet.

"I am surprised, but they know more about it than I do," Walaker said. "In my mind, we were probably talking about 35 and a half, maybe 36 feet. I've got a couple of friends of mine who are hydrologists who say we need to get ready for something above 40 feet."


 

 

Kirsch's Outdoor Products | Fargo, ND | 701-261-9017 Garmin GPS Hunting Maps
Liebel's Guide Service | Williston, ND | 701-770-6746 liebelsguideservice.com
Jig-em-Up Guide Service | Grand Forks, ND | 701-739-9198 jig-em-up-guide-service.com

 

 
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Farnorth Said:
Fargo needed this news BIG TIME.  Expect every report of "possible" flooding to get hyped beyond belief.

Support for a diversion plan is impossible to maintain unless you actually have flooding issues.   I'm sure there was dancing in the Halls when this news came out.

I bet not one person danced in the halls.  wrong again.

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Horsager Said:
 Pelican ramp not useable without dredging by Labor day

Wrong! Devils Lake forecasted to rise 2 feet already. 

zoops
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 If there is much flooding this spring I think it just shows again the effects of all the drainage and how screwed up the system is.  Last year was super dry and this has been maybe just on the high side of average for winter snowfall and we need to worry about major flooding? Not to mention every time it rains 2 or 3 inches in the summer the river goes up 20 feet.  Something is really broken.  

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Enslow Said:

Horsager Said:
 Pelican ramp not useable without dredging by Labor day

Wrong! Devils Lake forecasted to rise 2 feet already. 

Lot of snow around there and good snow north in the upper basin.  I bet we every bit of 2' and maybe more.

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Right now the concern should be overland flooding with the extended cooler temps and current snow pac, a significant rain and frozen ground could be a recipe folks getting water where they don't want it...  


"Colorless green ideas sleep furiously"
...People who don’t understand sarcasm are awesome !?!
Jig-em-Up Guide Service | Grand Forks, ND | 701-739-9198 jig-em-up-guide-service.com

 

 

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 this is going to get very interesting... not quite 1997 interesting.  but, i would say maybe 2006, 2001 or 1979 levels for grand forks and upper 30s for fargo.  certainly no hydrologist... but, the longer we stay in this freeze and keep getting a bit of moisture every week, the bigger chance that things will thaw practically overnight and meet with a still iced over river.

folks always talked about 1997 being a perfect storm for grand forks.  i actually take the position it was an almost perfect storm.  the part that made it an almost perfect storm in my mind was the very good march thaw we had that year.  there was a good 2-3 weeks of decent weather in mid-late march and the first couple days of april that allowed the river ice to break up and a lot of water to get flushed prior to the april storm hitting.  had we had the same 110-130 inches of snow without that nice weather in march and then the same very warm weather in early april instead of the same warm weather that we ended up getting towards mid to later april, i honestly think it could've been worse.  but, since i ain't a usgs hydrologist... 

Born to hunt and fish... Forced to work!

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 Living there for 30yrs I've sandbagged more houses than I care to think of. When you have to use a boat to get sandbags to the house really sucks. Flood away now that I live out west. Lots of permanent dikes are at 44ft so doubt it will be a big deal. If a dike gives away then you will have grand forks again. With all the buy-outs they did after the last flood, not many sandbags will be needed

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GET SOME!!!!!

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Fargo Forum: FARGO ND — Get ready for a big one.

With winter continuing to drag on and the melting process frozen in its tracks, the area is projected to be in for a “significant flood” along the Red River this spring, said Greg Gust, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Grand Forks.

“Let’s just say it’s going to be in the realm of some of the big floods we’ve seen in the last few years,” he said, referring to floods in 2010 and 2011.

“It’s not looking quite so bad as ’09,” Gust added.

In 2010, the Red River crested at 36.99 feet. In 2011, it hit 38.75 feet, the fourth highest on record. The 2009 flood crested at 40.84 feet.

The Red River flood stage in Fargo-Moorhead is 17 feet.

Gust said slow melting and record to near-record cold temperatures are bumping up the likelihood of a major flood.

He said temperatures will stay in the freezing range until the middle of next week. Things won’t start really melting until the first week in April, and a flood won’t start “materializing” until the second week, Gust said.

The snowpack upstream, in the Wahpeton area, is “as much or more” than it was in 2011, he said.

“It’s going to take days and days to melt that,” he said.

The weather service will issue an updated flood outlook this morning with specific information on what the area can expect this flood season. Gust wasn’t willing to quantify the range of predictions prior to the release of the updated outlook.

In its last flood outlook March 7, the weather service predicted an 88 percent chance the Red River would top the 30-foot major flood stage in Fargo-Moorhead.

It also said there was a 5 percent chance of the river exceeding 38.2 feet.

Last week, after his annual drive to look at snow and water conditions in the southern Red River Valley, Fargo Mayor Dennis Walaker predicted the river would hit 32 feet in Fargo.

Fargo was in “pretty good shape” for the projected water levels in the March 7 flood outlook, said City Engineer Mark Bittner. The city has spent about $100 million in flood protection since 1997, and much of the city is protected to 38 feet or more.

“We’ve made quite a few improvements over the past three, four years,” Bittner said.

The city has constructed more than 20 levees since 2009, data from the engineering office shows. All of them are built to 42.5 feet or greater, and many are along or near the river between 40th and 64th avenues south.

At 38 feet, Fargo requires 250,000 sandbags. At 42 feet, that number jumps to 1.1 million bags and an estimated 11 miles of temporary levees, Bittner said. The city still has 750,000 bags left over from 2011.

Moorhead is also well-equipped to fight upcoming floods. Since 2009, the city has spent $88 million on mitigation projects, said City Engineer Bob Zimmerman.

Moorhead requires no sandbags or clay levees for river levels up to 35 feet. At 38 feet, only seven properties are affected, requiring 33,000 sandbags and possibly two-fifths of a mile of clay levees.

At 40 feet, 38 properties in Moorhead are affected, requiring 163,000 sandbags and possibly two miles of levees. Zimmerman hedged and said some of those temporary levees serve as backup to the sandbagging.

He added that some of those emergency levees protect areas that have been bought out, but not yet cleared, by the city. Permanent levees will take their place by next year, Zimmerman said.

“I can comfortably say I don’t have a lot of concern up to that 40-foot stage,” he said.

Moorhead has four permanent levee construction projects planned for this year and a couple more in 2014, Zimmerman said. In all, $16 million in projects remain before Moorhead is protected to 42.5 feet.

Cass County Administrator Keith Berndt said he would be watching the flood outlook closely today. Generally, no residences in Cass County are affected up to 35 feet, but roads begin to wash out, he said.

When the river hits 38 feet: “That’s where the first subdivisions start to be threatened,” Berndt said, such as Chrisan, south of Fargo. “Every foot from there is many, many more areas that are inundated.”

One major change in the county is that there is now a permanent levee near U.S. Highway 81 on 88th Avenue South. It was only a temporary levee in 2011.

Berndt said it should protect everything between Highway 81 and 25th Street, including Round Hill and Grandberg.

In Clay County, Oakport is protected up to 42 feet, said Bryan Green, the county’s emergency management director. Green said Georgetown is also well-protected.

 

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Joined: Friday, May 26, 2006 - 1:14am

Floods suck.

Is it impious to weigh goose music and art in the same scales? I think not, because the true hunter is merely a noncreative artist. Who painted the first picture on a bone in the caves of France? A hunter. Who alone in our modern life so thrills to the sight of living beauty that he will endure hunger and thirst and cold to feed his eye upon it? The hunter. Who wrote the great hunter's poem about the sheer wonder of the wind, the hail, and the snow, the stars, the lightnings, and the clouds, the lion, the deer, and the wild goat, the raven, the hawk, and the eagle, and above all the eulogy to the horse? Job, one of the great dramatic artists of all time. Poets sing and hunters scale the mountains primarily for one and the same reason--the thrill of beauty. Critics write and hunters outwit their game primarily for one and the same reason--to reduce that beauty to possession. The differences are largely matters of degree, consciousness, and that sly arbiter of the classification of human activities, language. If, then, we can live without goose music, we may as well do away with stars, or sunsets, or Iliads. But the point is we would be fools to do away with any of them. 

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zoops Said:
 If there is much flooding this spring I think it just shows again the effects of all the drainage and how screwed up the system is.  Last year was super dry and this has been maybe just on the high side of average for winter snowfall and we need to worry about major flooding? Not to mention every time it rains 2 or 3 inches in the summer the river goes up 20 feet.  Something is really broken.  

the problem with this is how quickly the water comes.. if we get a slower thaw there will be no flood, but the ground has to unthaw before any thing can be soaked up, since it is end of march, i doubt there is going to be a slow thawing period.

 Problem solving is hunting. It is savage pleasure and we are born to it.

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