How long will it take?................

 

Kentucky Windage Said:
How long will it take until everyone calms down and ammo can be found again?  Or it this the end?

18-24mo until you can walk in and purchase at least some common stuff with regularity.  36mo until you can pretty much purchase whatever you want with regularity.

The bump in the road we're seeing with ammo/reloading components is exactly what happens with oil/gas when someone blows their nose too loud in the middle east.

Are these ammo and component manufacturers having that hard of time keeping up with production or is it just slightly all too convenient to be "behind" on manufacturing which will keep the prices high?  I would think they would keep pumping stuff out as quickly as possible to take advantage of the "hurry buy quickly" mind set.

How many guys on here are scrambling for ammo?

I have a couple boxes of shells for each caliber of gun I own.  I really don't need more than that.  However, with the way I break/lose arrows, this trend better not shift over to archery.  Only kidding.

 

Kentucky Windage Said:
Are these ammo and component manufacturers having that hard of time keeping up with production or is it just slightly all too convenient to be "behind" on manufacturing which will keep the prices high?  I would think they would keep pumping stuff out as quickly as possible to take advantage of the "hurry buy quickly" mind set.

Of greatest importance, this is what happens when you buy all of your reloading supplies online and never support any local businesses in order to save a few bucks.  Everybody else is doing the same thing and then there's only a handful of places to order stuff.  No local business in it's right mind would put 12-18mo worth of product on their shelf unless they had a crystal ball and knew this sort of event was coming.  It only takes a few dozen greedy folks to clean out Midway, Midsouth, Graf's, etc. and you're on the outside looking in.

Welcome to "Just In Time" inventory.  Nobody wants inventory carrying costs, so nobody stocks much inventory.  Any kind of hiccup anywhere along the supply chain and everyone feels the pinch, most of all the end-user.  

How can any manufacturer be expected to plan for UNPRECEDENTED demand for their products?

I look at it and say, HOLY CRAP!!  Hogden should concentrate on H335, Varget, 4895, and 4350, damn the rest, that's the best selling rifle powder.  The pistol guys would say something else, as would the shotgun guys, so, they've still got to make it all.  Many of the offerings from Accurate, Alliant, and Ramshot powders are made overseas so an uptick in demand can take months before any kind of meaningful respite comes to the US market.

It's not so much that the manufacturers can't keep up, it more that the supply chain is exceptionally fragile and nobody carries and extra inventory to cover exponentially increased demand.

You could apply the above to WAY more of the US economy than just shooting supplies.  It's actually scary to think about but another example is that in any given major city there's only about 3-4 days worth of food in all of the grocery stores.

Ive ready about that and it IS scary. When TSHTF, they wont have any guns either to try to protect their food or take food from their neighbors (thanks to their government)....

Horsager Said:
 
You could apply the above to WAY more of the US economy than just shooting supplies.  It's actually scary to think about but another example is that in any given major city there's only about 3-4 days worth of food in all of the grocery stores.

I just got into reloading... I bought a 1000 large caliber primers... but haven't purchased powder yet...

Do you guys think that there will be a run on powder?

I shoot a fair amount and have been nominated to reload for my brother in laws who shoot about the same as I do... how much powder, primers should a guy have?

Will there be a run on dies? I have been toying with the idea of buying dies for each gun I have but I don't think there is going to be a huge run on that hardware.

Thoughts??

marauder29 Said:
I just got into reloading... I bought a 1000 large caliber primers... but haven't purchased powder yet...

Do you guys think that there will be a run on powder?

I shoot a fair amount and have been nominated to reload for my brother in laws who shoot about the same as I do... how much powder, primers should a guy have?

Will there be a run on dies? I have been toying with the idea of buying dies for each gun I have but I don't think there is going to be a huge run on that hardware.

Thoughts??

Don't wait until Aug/Sept/Oct to buy your components.

There are already shortages reported by piloce departments.  They cant get ammo either.  You would think they might have planned for that.... guess not.

How would it affect all these businesses building/ making AR's and other components that are on the feds hit list if they did ban them?  Does the government think about or care about who loses a job if this kind of legislation whatever it is passes?

 

Kentucky Windage Said:
How would it affect all these businesses building/ making AR's and other components that are on the feds hit list if they did ban them?  Does the government think about or care about who loses a job if this kind of legislation whatever it is passes?

If AR's are banned but not confiscated, then they'll be able to build everything except the serial numbered lowers, everything else will still be needed.  Particularly now as lots of folks stocked up on stripped lowers and have no parts to complete them with.

Uppers, barrels, forends, stocks, pistol grips, bolt carrier groups, etc, etc, etc.  That said, it's still a crock of dung.

Horsager Said:
 

Kentucky Windage Said:
How would it affect all these businesses building/ making AR's and other components that are on the feds hit list if they did ban them?  Does the government think about or care about who loses a job if this kind of legislation whatever it is passes?

If AR's are banned but not confiscated, then they'll be able to build everything except the serial numbered lowers, everything else will still be needed.  Particularly now as lots of folks stocked up on stripped lowers and have no parts to complete them with.

Uppers, barrels, forends, stocks, pistol grips, bolt carrier groups, etc, etc, etc.  That said, it's still a crock of dung.

What does a lower cost now?  Can a guy even find one?

This just goes to show.  Something like this put a product out of hand or at least made it very painful.  Just think if something worse happened and water and food flew off the shelves like this (and of course gasoline)?  Complete and utter kayos.

I think I am way behind in being properly prepared in many things.  Guns, canned goods, water and ammunition to name a few.  I don't trust this friggin country anymore.

 

Tim Sandstrom Said:

Horsager Said:
 

Kentucky Windage Said:
How would it affect all these businesses building/ making AR's and other components that are on the feds hit list if they did ban them?  Does the government think about or care about who loses a job if this kind of legislation whatever it is passes?

If AR's are banned but not confiscated, then they'll be able to build everything except the serial numbered lowers, everything else will still be needed.  Particularly now as lots of folks stocked up on stripped lowers and have no parts to complete them with.

Uppers, barrels, forends, stocks, pistol grips, bolt carrier groups, etc, etc, etc.  That said, it's still a crock of dung.

What does a lower cost now?  Can a guy even find one?

CDNN had a few left $499 last Sat.  Regular price for cast lowers is $80-$150, pre-hysteria.  I think billet lowers were $300+ but never really kept much track of them.

 

Tim Sandstrom Said:
This just goes to show.  Something like this put a product out of hand or at least made it very painful.  Just think if something worse happened and water and food flew off the shelves like this (and of course gasoline)?  Complete and utter kayos.

Chaos?  Nope.  Things would get very simple very fast, if you took something that wasn't yours, you'd get killed for it.  In about 60 days of 0 supplies, our country's population would be ~50% of what it is today.  It'd be worst on the coasts and in the major metro areas and merely inconvenient for rural folks with some know-how.

Horsager Said:
 

Tim Sandstrom Said:
This just goes to show.  Something like this put a product out of hand or at least made it very painful.  Just think if something worse happened and water and food flew off the shelves like this (and of course gasoline)?  Complete and utter kayos.

Chaos?  Nope.  Things would get very simple very fast, if you took something that wasn't yours, you'd get killed for it.  In about 60 days of 0 supplies, our country's population would be ~50% of what it is today.  It'd be worst on the coasts and in the major metro areas and merely inconvenient for rural folks with some know-how.

Well it would be nothing short of a panic in the beginning.  Both beginning and "mid term" would be bad.  Those that don't have will kill to take it.  So killing will be going both ways.

Inconvenient might be the word for the able but it will still suck and change life drastically.  Sometimes I wonder seriously if I'm going to get to see it happen in my life!

Horsager Said:
 

Tim Sandstrom Said:
This just goes to show.  Something like this put a product out of hand or at least made it very painful.  Just think if something worse happened and water and food flew off the shelves like this (and of course gasoline)?  Complete and utter kayos.

Chaos?  Nope.  Things would get very simple very fast, if you took something that wasn't yours, you'd get killed for it.  In about 60 days of 0 supplies, our country's population would be ~50% of what it is today.  It'd be worst on the coasts and in the major metro areas and merely inconvenient for rural folks with some know-how.

150 million people dieing do to rioting, civil war-like activities, disease and starvation in 60 days ISN'T chaos? You are one cool customer dude. I bet if I poured boiling water in your mouth you would spit out ice cubes.

Meelosh Said:

Horsager Said:
 

Tim Sandstrom Said:
This just goes to show.  Something like this put a product out of hand or at least made it very painful.  Just think if something worse happened and water and food flew off the shelves like this (and of course gasoline)?  Complete and utter kayos.

Chaos?  Nope.  Things would get very simple very fast, if you took something that wasn't yours, you'd get killed for it.  In about 60 days of 0 supplies, our country's population would be ~50% of what it is today.  It'd be worst on the coasts and in the major metro areas and merely inconvenient for rural folks with some know-how.

150 million people dieing do to rioting, civil war-like activities, disease and starvation in 60 days ISN'T chaos? You are one cool customer dude. I bet if I poured boiling water in your mouth you would spit out ice cubes.

A little planning goes along way to being able to calmly and deliberately respond to a given situation, good or bad.  Chaos is a result of panic by lots of people, which is a result of no planning by same people.  

Just for clarification:  Paranoia is not the same as prudent planning and preparation. 

I think it should go back to the fur trade. I'd be rich, fat and happy.

xdeano