Fargo Moorhead may see new record crest

I think I'll just leave my basement plumbing plugged for awhile, and I'm even high and dry in West Fargo.

i live in fox run in fargo we were going to start moving back into the basement this weekend, guess not, i think i well go to devils lake and fish and get away from this stress for a while

Your kidding.... dang.
I thought the weather services and everyone were predicting a "slow" thaw and a slowly receding waterline.

Conditions are there for some more serious flooding.  Valley soils are saturated and have been since last fall.  The recent storm just dumped a crap load of heavy wet snow throughout the drainage basin on both sides of the river.  The Sheyenne only carries about 10% of the water that the Red does but, the entire Sheyenne drainage has a deep snowpack and most of that area was also saturated last fall.  In addition they are already releasing water from Baldhill so basically everything that melts into the Sheyenne will end up in the Red.  Granted that is North of Fargo but it will impact the speed that water gets through Fargo from the south.

A fast melt accompanied by significant rain might make for more problems in Fargo/Moorhead.  Especially if it warms up really fast in the southern end of the valley before the ice melts in the north.

Today, near the Canadian border, it doesn't look like a day where there is much melting going on.  I just talked to a farmer from Wales who was up checking bins at a farmstead.  When he drove out to the farm, the drainage ditch looked normal.  Two hours later, the water was running over the road.

Bring it?  It was a miserable affair but we just beat back 40.8,  we will regroup, and we will hold Fargo at 41.  North Dakota and Minnetucky  is not the southern seaboard.  Rather than looting we will build.

This can't be true.

Shorty has been all over these pages saying it had already crested in Fargo!

cpete2 Said:
Bring it?  It was a miserable affair but we just beat back 40.8,  we will regroup, and we will hold Fargo at 41.  North Dakota and Minnetucky  is not the southern seaboard.  Rather than looting we will build.

41 doesn't worry me. It's the 42.8. I'm sure they have some amount of additional precipitation factored in there but if we have an actual storm we're in trouble.

Looks like a crest - feels like a crest - IT IS A CREST -  Hey Allen


Remember - tree tops ---- remember that word well when you see ole short out on Sak this summer.   He goin be fishing tree tops.   Bumpin stumps -

Bottom line - is we have an incredible amount of snow pack - runs Northwest to southeast across the state.   To the same dis-believers that the snowpack will have no impact on Sak ?  You are absolutely in a dream world.  As with the west - the east will be impacted as the sheyenne river valley is pumped full of snow / the south east is chukked full - both lake traverse and ashtray are full - Our spring is late (just like this armchair hydrologist/meterologist predicted months ago) late spring =brings quick melts as the later we get the more intense sun.    Our jet is going to be just like it was in the 70s and 90s.   Expect some cold temps this summer - intense rain ----- along with the fact that another storm is brewing in the pacific ---- all of this scares the he!! out of some govt employee workin for noaa - he is put in a box - he needs to put a next crest number high - to save his  job n @ass.   Bottom line - I used to own one of em.

SHORTHAIRSRUS Said:
all of this scares the he!! out of some govt employee workin for noaa - he is put in a box - he needs to put a next crest number high - to save his  job n @ass.   Bottom line - I used to own one of em.

Are you the guy who made the 1997 49' crest projection in Grand Forks?  It'd explain a lot for sure.

6. This year’s runoff season does not compare to any season in peoples collective memory. Many people have tried to use historical analogs or comparisons to predict river crests this year and they have all been low. The Red River valley is experiencing a hydrologic phenomenon over the past 7 months that has never been seen in recorded history. Extreme inputs produce extreme outputs. Due to the extreme meteorological patterns that have dominated over the past 7 months, and the fact that spring is just beginning, the Red River and its tributaries will be very susceptible to additional flooding the remainder of spring and into the summer.

I copied the above from another board.  The original poster got it from a NOAA website.  Something to think about.

shorty,

By definition you can have only ONE crest to a flood.  For their to be two crests they would have to be distinctly separate events and I am not sure this would qualify for that, OR one has to have two exactly equal values for stage height.  Are you betting the first maximum height will hold as the crest, or that their will be turn around and the next maximum will be exactly the same as the first?

Kinda like having only one dumbest SOB in the room.  Sooner or later the peanut gallery can only choose one.

Allen Said:
This can't be true.

Shorty has been all over these pages saying it had already crested in Fargo!

It did

Allen Said:
shorty,

By definition you can have only ONE crest to a flood. 

That's true

Allen Said:
shorty,

.  For their to be two crests they would have to be distinctly separate events

Correct - again.   You got now Allen. 

Shorty.

No.  I am not wrong you idiot.  This is merely an extension of the same spring flooding at Fargo until, and unless, the river falls completely below flood stage.  Then we are talking about two separate events.  Otherwise for every wave generated rise and fall in the gage we would have to be screaming "crest", and would end up setting thousands of your stupidly defined crests a year.

Even hydrologists succumb to dumbing it down in the media as two crests because of idiots like you when they know better.  Clearly because you are incapable of grasping the basics much less the finer points of science.

Allan,

For stupid laypeople like me what would this second significant rise be called?  I dont disagree with you on terminology or definition, just want to be using correct "wordage" so I dont get flamed by you as you seem to be very much a stickler for the details in life.

luveyes,

Depends on what happens.  If the second rise does not exceed the first, then shorty is right about the first being the crest.

If the second exceeds the first and we have never fell out of flood stage, then it is simply an extended spring flood with a late crest.  I for one am uncertain as to just how high this second surge will take us.  Lots of uncertainty this far out.


My only beef with shorty is his apparent disdain for the people who work with this on a daily basis.  I dislike it whenever people who couldn't fill a thimble with their knowledge on the topic sit back on the internet and decide to poke at the professionals.  Much as I would hope it bothers the general public if he were disseminating false information about something in other professional fields.   

It's always good to know one's own limitations.  I don't nitpick very many professions on FBO because I like to believe their knowledge and skills exceed my own in that arena.  Just seems wise to use their skills on topics I don't have the training to handle.

I may be a little touchier on this subject because as of late I have had to deal a lot with this kind of public disinformation at work and it really eats up a lot of time I could use to do better things.   IMHO, it's tough to deal with misinformation in the public if one chooses to ignore confronting it and calling out those who choose to disseminate it.  One need look no further than how stupidly tough it was for NDGF to combat the "mountain lion trailer" story.  I am betting they wished they had called in immediately to squash the rumor rather than sitting back and fielding the hundreds (??) of phone calls and emails on the topic.  

Respectfully understood.

Respectfully understood.

oops

Well Allen,

I can tell you there is NEVER any misinformation in medicine....  YIKES!!!!!!!!