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23 Replies | Page 1 of 21 2 Next Page >> | Top of Page | Bottom of Page

Corps New Forecast for Sakakawea (July 2009)

by Tim Sandstrom , Posted to Fishing Buddy on 07/02/2009 12:53 PM | "Quote" | "Quick Reply" |

Tim Sandstrom

Joined: 07/14/2003
Location: ND

Corp says we'll top out at 1840.1 for July. At the moment, the lake is sitting at 1839.24 so that means we are only going to see a rise of .86 for the month. Don't think that's going to hold.

The upper basic says 1841.8 will be the July rise. Not sure if I believe that or not either. The lake has been filling constantly but at some point the rise will level off. Word is plenty of snow yet in mountains and the flow from rivers should be constant.

Hope so, the Corp says we'll be down to 1830 by February. Not liking that number one bit. Gonna drop us 9 feet? I like the upper basic of a 4 to 5 foot drop but still, not sure if we'll go down that much unless the project orders are to dump water hard.

Fort Peck is expected to gain another five or six feet according to the Corp forecast. However, their upper basic says they gain 10 feet (weird). If Peck got another five or six feet they'd be only 8 to 10 feet below normal pool and if they get the upper basic then they will only be five feet below normal! That would mean our runoff from this year filled two reservoirs and almost filled another. Not bad for below average plains snow pack

.

Hopefully the Corp will maintain water as best they can. Time to manage with the times and with the water we have...not what they expect we are going to have. Well, I guess I'd like them to manage for their basic forecast as that would require them to control gates with watchful eyes.

Re: Corps New Forecast for Sakakawea (July 2009)

by ggenthusiast on 07/02/2009 12:52 PM | Reply #1 | "Quote" | "Quick Reply" |

ggenthusiast
Joined: 09/11/2002
Location: ND

Nothing they do or say makes much sense does it. Pretty typical for a government agency.

I'm interested in the places between places.

Re: Corps New Forecast for Sakakawea (July 2009)

by Tim Sandstrom on 07/02/2009 1:01 PM | Reply #2 | "Quote" | "Quick Reply" |

Tim Sandstrom
Joined: 07/14/2003
Location: ND

Projecting water is a tough son of a gun so gotta give them slack there. It is just one of them things. Although, I am surprised at the upper basic. Typically, that has been the most accurate forecast but it is bumped down three feet from the June forecast. I will buy it as long as we don't lose more than 4 or so feet of water by February.

Re: Corps New Forecast for Sakakawea (July 2009)

by lwittmayer on 07/02/2009 1:40 PM | Reply #3 | "Quote" | "Quick Reply" |

lwittmayer
Joined: 10/10/2008
Location: ND

I was up in the mountains out west just last weekend. Lots of snow yet to melt. People were actually skiing through the Beartooth Pass, so we will see some more water coming our way. Yellowstone Lake is flowing out pretty quickly. Oh yeah, and if you get out by Yellowstone, the wildlife is crazy this year. In a period of 2 hours we saw 2 grizzlys, 1 black bear, 6 moose, and the guys in the other vehicle in our convoy almost hit a wolf. Good Times!

Re: Corps New Forecast for Sakakawea (July 2009)

by eyexer on 07/02/2009 4:49 PM | Reply #4 | "Quote" | "Quick Reply" |

eyexer
Joined: 02/28/2007
Location: ND

The corp is so out to lunch it's amazing. They shouldn't even be allowed to run these reservoirs. They're about as good at predicting stuff as Obama/Biden.

Re: Corps New Forecast for Sakakawea (July 2009)

by hunttomuch on 07/02/2009 4:57 PM | Reply #5 | "Quote" | "Quick Reply" |

hunttomuch
Joined: 10/05/2007
Location: MT

lwittmayer
To bad the didn't hit that wolf!!!!

Dead animals don't need fur anyway!!!!!!!!!!
LATERS

Re: Corps New Forecast for Sakakawea (July 2009)

by Blacktail on 07/02/2009 6:52 PM | Reply #6 | "Quote" | "Quick Reply" |

Blacktail
Joined: 05/12/2005
Location: WY

Water is going over the spillway on both dams on the Big Horn River. The river is 4 -5 feet above its normal now plus flash flooding today in areas of the Big Horn. The Big Horn feeds into the Yellowstone so no dam until Garrison. It has to get higher.

...._|\____________________
..../ `--|||||||||||--------------- _]
.../_==o_________________|
.....),---.(_(__) /...

Re: Corps New Forecast for Sakakawea (July 2009)

by bottombouncer on 07/03/2009 00:48 AM | Reply #7 | "Quote" | "Quick Reply" |

bottombouncer
Joined: 04/27/2007
Location: MT

Looking at the water level plot for Lake Sakakawea, it still showing 1840 by the 5 or 6th of July. If the average holds good it will keep going up about 1 foot every 7 days, so if there is no increase in the production orders and the inflow doesn't drop of much; 1843 by the end of the month July.

Re: Corps New Forecast for Sakakawea (July 2009)

by pigsticker on 07/03/2009 11:16 PM | Reply #8 | "Quote" | "Quick Reply" |

pigsticker
Joined: 05/04/2005
Location: ND

Thats a safe assumption Bottombouncer but it all depends on the topography of what that water has to fill now. It takes a lot more water to bring a lake up a foot with a gradual slope than it does one with vertical contours. That could be what the CORP is taking into account. At it's upper end of capacity Sak takes over a lot more acerage to gain that extra foot of water than it would in say the old river channel. I'm still gonna stick with 1842 and hope for more!

You can't shoot a big one if you shoot a small one!

Re: Corps New Forecast for Sakakawea (July 2009)

by pigsticker on 07/06/2009 4:18 PM | Reply #9 | "Quote" | "Quick Reply" |

pigsticker
Joined: 05/04/2005
Location: ND

1839.89 Not bad!

Production orders- 16,000

Steady as she goes

You can't shoot a big one if you shoot a small one!

Re: Corps New Forecast for Sakakawea (July 2009)

by Allen on 07/06/2009 7:44 PM | Reply #10 | "Quote" | "Quick Reply" |

Allen
Joined: 01/09/2002
Location: ND

Am I the only one who is absolutely shocked they aren't using the new water to generate electricity?

Must be all them new fangled Energy Star rated appliances!

Who cares, I will take it and hope this latest little addition to the reservoirs sees us through the remainder of the drought.

Pay attention boy, words mean things! Phil S.

Re: Corps New Forecast for Sakakawea (July 2009)

by Tim Sandstrom on 07/06/2009 7:52 PM | Reply #11 | "Quote" | "Quick Reply" |

Tim Sandstrom
Joined: 07/14/2003
Location: ND

Allen,

I check every day at least three times to see if anything has changed. Two things. (1) is we have so much water down south that they keep it tight or (2) they realized they mis-managed for years. I like to think it is a combination of the two.

Re: Corps New Forecast for Sakakawea (July 2009)

by Allen on 07/07/2009 06:30 AM | Reply #12 | "Quote" | "Quick Reply" |

Allen
Joined: 01/09/2002
Location: ND

Tim,

It could also be that the new Master Manual, which wasn't in place as we went into the drought, isn't so bad afterall for those of us up north if this is how the system is going to be managed from here forward. The real key test will be this fall and how long the navigation season lasts.

That is likely why you have seen such lower figures for both Oahe and Sak by Feb. It sure as heck isn't because they are using the water now.

Pay attention boy, words mean things! Phil S.

Re: Corps New Forecast for Sakakawea (July 2009)

by sdwxman on 07/07/2009 07:19 AM | Reply #13 | "Quote" | "Quick Reply" |

sdwxman
Joined: 04/06/2007
Location: SD

Allen-

Isn't the master manual the operating "bible" for the Corps? How long has the new one been in effect?

I just hope Peck can fill up during this time, then we'd all be in better shape.

Re: Corps New Forecast for Sakakawea (July 2009)

by Tim Sandstrom on 07/07/2009 07:51 AM | Reply #14 | "Quote" | "Quick Reply" |

Tim Sandstrom
Joined: 07/14/2003
Location: ND

Allen,

Yeah I guess that is what I meant by they learned their lesson. It took two massive droughts for them to change something written in the last stone age. And maybe finally realizing the barge industry and other navigation industries on the Missouri really were being phased out on their own. Trucking, trains, air freight, etc, etc.

If it is due to the Master Manual then it will a breath of fresh air as many including the Friends of Sakakawea folks believe the Master Manual to fall short. Quite honestly, I started reading much of it but I hardly remember all the specifics. Kinda like how our Representatives in the country read bills I think...ha!

sdwxman,

Peck, according to the upper Basic (which I think is the closest forecast) is expected to level at 2229 which is only 5 feet below normal operating pool. Worst case scenario (the basic) says 2224. So considering where Peck or all the reservoirs for that matter, we are sitting very good. I haven't looked at Peck to see the million acre graph on how the lake fills but I have to think with the terrain and country that makes up Peck that the top half might be the easiest to fill. Just speculation. I could go look and will in a bit.

Rained out on the construction job. Yippy, that means the job will last two weeks instead of one. Boooo......

Re: Corps New Forecast for Sakakawea (July 2009)

by Allen on 07/07/2009 07:54 AM | Reply #15 | "Quote" | "Quick Reply" |

Allen
Joined: 01/09/2002
Location: ND

The "Bible" is a pretty good way to put it as it does dictate what the Corps can and can't do as well as what they have to do.

The current Missouri River Master Manual was issued in March of 2006. That's why I say it is only now really being tested with water in the system. With the reservoirs back to near full across the board it will be interesting to see how levels respond in the future to the new management criteria.

I can only imagine it will be better for us up north than in the past as there are stronger provisions in the manual for upstream interests.

Pay attention boy, words mean things! Phil S.

Re: Corps New Forecast for Sakakawea (July 2009)

by walleye94 on 07/15/2009 3:58 PM | Reply #16 | "Quote" | "Quick Reply" |

walleye94
Joined: 04/14/2005
Location: ND

Here's the corps latest 3 week forecast, shows SAK getting to 1843 by July 28th.

http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/reports/twout.html

Hard to believe in April 08, only 15 months ago, the lake was around 1807...that's a lot of water.

Re: Corps New Forecast for Sakakawea (July 2009)

by Tonts1 on 07/15/2009 4:12 PM | Reply #17 | "Quote" | "Quick Reply" |

Tonts1
Joined: 11/19/2002
Location: ND

That really is amazing.

Re: Corps New Forecast for Sakakawea (July 2009)

by kpurchin_up on 07/15/2009 4:31 PM | Reply #18 | "Quote" | "Quick Reply" |

kpurchin_up
Joined: 09/08/2007
Location: ND

ya, we noticed 8lb flats had increased about 26ft when we were at Sak.

***Everything h

appens for a reason***

Re: Corps New Forecast for Sakakawea (July 2009)

by eyexer on 07/15/2009 5:33 PM | Reply #19 | "Quote" | "Quick Reply" |

eyexer
Joined: 02/28/2007
Location: ND

Isn't the Corp amazing!

Re: Corps New Forecast for Sakakawea (July 2009)

by Allen on 07/15/2009 6:57 PM | Reply #20 | "Quote" | "Quick Reply" |

Allen
Joined: 01/09/2002
Location: ND

eyexer, the Corps has made it rain and snow?

I know a fair number of people who are pretty confident in their ability to predict the weather, and none of them predicted back in Jan, Feb, March, April, or even in late May that Bismarck would have received over 17.4 inches of precip by July 15th. Which of course is 0.6 inches above our annual average.

Please see: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=bis&storyid=29656&source=0

And at this point Bismarck is not alone in being unusually wet. This wet area extends throughout most of western (below Williston) ND right now and well into Montana and the mountains.

It would take a far better crystal ball than I own to predict that Bismarck would be above the pace needed to set a single year precipitation record.

Pay attention boy, words mean things! Phil S.

23 Replies | Page 1 of 21 2 Next Page >> | Top of Page | Bottom of Page

Posted By: Tim Sandstrom
Posted On: 07/02/2009 12:53 PM

1443 Views, 23 Comments

Tags: july, forecast, corp, 0, says, corps, sakakawea, basic, new, upper
More Tags: Fort Peck,
Region: North Dakota

Categories: Fishing

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